Coinbase Global (COIN) stock faced renewed pressure this week after Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgraded the cryptocurrency exchange from Buy to Neutral ahead of its first-quarter earnings report, scheduled for May 8.
The downgrade reflects mounting concerns over weaker trading volumes and regulatory uncertainty, which have weighed heavily on the stock throughout 2025.
Analyst Gus Galá, who led the downgrade, described the move as “tactical,” removing his previous $275 price target and warning that Coinbase could either miss earnings expectations or issue downward guidance revisions.
Galá believes this caution is warranted given the recent volatility in crypto trading activity and persistent investor hesitancy, which could create more attractive entry points for buyers after the results.
Wall Street consensus for Coinbase’s Q1 2025 earnings stands at $1.87 per share on revenue of $2.07 billion. While this would mark a 29% year-over-year revenue increase, it represents a sharp 57% decline in earnings per share compared to the same period last year.
The company has a strong track record, having only missed estimates twice in the past nine quarters, but analysts remain cautious given the challenging market backdrop.
COIN shares have lost over 20% year-to-date, though they have rebounded 25% from April lows. Trading volume showed some improvement in May, but analysts remain hesitant to make firm predictions due to limited data and ongoing regulatory headwinds. Options traders are bracing for volatility, anticipating a move of nearly 8% in either direction following the earnings release.
Despite near-term caution, some analysts remain optimistic about Coinbase’s long-term prospects, citing the company’s ability to adapt and cut costs if needed. Stablecoin legislation is seen as a potential catalyst for future growth, with ongoing developments in Congress closely watched by the market.
The consensus analyst rating on COIN remains a Moderate Buy, with an average price target near $271, implying significant upside from current levels.
As Coinbase prepares to report earnings, investors are focused on whether the company can navigate short-term volume challenges and regulatory uncertainty while positioning itself for long-term growth in the evolving crypto landscape.