Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings after the market close on May 5. The automaker’s ability to meet or exceed its $6 billion profit forecast is expected to play a crucial role in determining the near-term direction of its stock, which currently trades at $10.18, down about 1% on the day.
Expectations Set Low Bar
Wall Street analysts have set notably cautious expectations for Ford’s Q1 results. Consensus estimates call for earnings per share of just $0.02-down sharply from $0.49 a year ago-and revenue of approximately $35.8 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year decline.
This low bar is a result of several headwinds, including lower vehicle volumes, a 20% production cut, and increased costs related to new plant launches and the company’s ongoing electric vehicle (EV) transition.
Segment Performance Under Scrutiny
Ford’s performance will be dissected across its three main business units:
- Ford Blue (ICE and hybrids): Expected to generate $17.6 billion in revenue, down 19% from last year, with EBIT dropping to $275 million from $905 million.
- Model e (EVs): Projected to bring in $1.5 billion in revenue, a significant jump from $115 million last year, but still expected to post a $1.17 billion loss before interest and taxes.
- Ford Pro (commercial): Anticipated revenue of $16.2 billion, down 10% year-over-year, with EBIT likely to fall to $1.5 billion from $3 billion.
While retail sales rose 5% in the quarter, overall vehicle sales fell 1.3%, mainly due to lower rental fleet sales and the discontinuation of certain models. Electrified vehicle sales, however, surged by 25.5%, reflecting Ford’s ongoing push into the EV market.
Profitability and Guidance in Focus
Ford’s management has guided for breakeven adjusted EBITDA in Q1, a stark drop from $2.7 billion in Q1 2024. For the full year, the company expects adjusted EBIT between $7.0 and $8.5 billion, with free cash flow shrinking to $3.5–$4.5 billion.
The Model e division alone is forecast to lose $5.0–$5.5 billion in 2025, underscoring the high costs of Ford’s electrification strategy.
Analyst Sentiment and Stock Outlook
Analyst sentiment is cautious, with most major firms holding neutral or underperform ratings and price targets ranging from $9 to $10. Despite the challenges, Ford’s affordable share price and attractive dividend yield remain points of interest for value investors.
Ford’s ability to hit its $6 billion profit forecast and deliver on its Ford+ growth strategy-balancing EV investments with core ICE and commercial strengths-will be critical for its stock performance.
Any earnings or guidance miss could trigger further downside, while a positive surprise may help restore investor confidence in the automaker’s turnaround narrative.