Airbus, the world’s second-largest aircraft manufacturer, unveiled its latest Global Market Forecast on June 12, projecting robust long-term growth for the aviation sector.
The company expects global passenger traffic to rise by 3.6% annually over the next two decades, fueled by expanding economies, urbanization, and a rapidly growing middle class. Despite the optimistic outlook, Airbus shares slipped in early trading as investors digested the implications of the forecast and ongoing market uncertainties.
The forecast anticipates a doubling of the global aircraft fleet by 2044, reaching nearly 50,000 planes. This expansion will require approximately 43,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries, with single-aisle jets like the A320 family dominating the order books. Widebody aircraft will also see significant demand, particularly as emerging markets drive new long-haul routes and city pairings.
Key growth drivers include a projected 2.5% annual increase in global GDP, a surge of 1.2 billion in urban populations, and an additional 1.5 billion people joining the global middle class—the demographic most likely to travel by air.
India is set to lead the charge, with domestic air traffic expected to grow at a world-leading 8.9% annually. Other high-growth corridors include routes between emerging Asia and China, and between the Middle East and Asia, reflecting shifting economic powerhouses and evolving travel patterns.
Airbus’s forecast also highlights the need for industry transformation. Around 44% of new aircraft deliveries will replace older, less fuel-efficient models, supporting sustainability goals and reducing environmental impact. The projected growth will create substantial demand for pilots, technicians, and aviation professionals, as well as opportunities in maintenance, supply chain management, and aircraft connectivity.
Despite the upbeat long-term vision, Airbus shares slipped as the market weighed ongoing supply chain challenges, global trade tensions, and the potential for near-term volatility. The company acknowledged these headwinds but emphasized the resilience of air travel demand and the sector’s capacity for adaptation.
With airlines worldwide continuing to place large orders—especially in fast-growing markets like India and China—Airbus remains confident in its ability to capture future demand. The company’s strategic focus on fleet commonality, operational efficiency, and sustainability positions it well to navigate both current uncertainties and the opportunities of a rapidly evolving global aviation landscape.
